A.I. Race Predictions: Highgate 10,000m

One of the greatest showcases of our sport in recent years, the 2018 Night of the 10,000m PBs is set to be the biggest yet. As always, the event which takes place in Highgate, North London is free to watch with multiple races, plenty of entertainment and the infamous #Lane3BeerNCheer throughout the evening. This year, footage is also available to watch through BBC online for those unable to make the journey to support from lane 3. Coverage starts at 8:15pm on Saturday 19th May.

With the race growing in profile year on year, 2018 welcomes the European Cup 10,000m, hosting athletes from 25 countries across the nine races. With some big names on the entry list and a number of highly anticipated debuts, we developed a program that uses an athlete’s best recent performances over various distances to predict race times. Based on the assumption that everyone has a ‘good’ day, these are our predictions for the respective ‘A’ races tomorrow night:

Men’s ‘A’ Race Prediction (Start Time: 9:15pm)

Pos Name Nation Predicted Time
1 Adel Mechaal ESP 27:38.15
2 Yemaneberhan Crippa ITA 27:41.13
3 Morhad Amdouni FRA 27:47.34
4 Richard Ringer GER 27:57.93
5 Ben Connor GBR 27:59.01
6 Luke Traynor GBR 28:05.42
7 Andy Vernon GBR 28:13.76
8 Alexander Yee GBR 28:17.37
9 Antonio Abadía ESP 28:18.12
10 Mohamud Aadan GBR 28:26.74
11 Fernando Carro ESP 28:30.95
12 Chris Thompson GBR 28:35.28
13 Ramazan Özdemir TUR 28:39.13
14 Haimro Almaya ISR 28:46.41
15 Tadesse Getahun ISR 28:46.85
16 Sam Stabler GBR 28:48.43
17 Yago Rojo ESP 28:49.62
18 Jean-Pierre Weerts BEL 28:50.43
19 Mykola Nyzhnyk UKR 28:54.37
20 Girmaw Amare ISR 28:56.47
21 Matthew Leach GBR 29:00.00
22 Juan Pérez ESP 29:05.40
23 Florian Carvalho FRA 29:06.45
24 Luke Caldwell GBR 29:07.48
25 Ellis Cross GBR 29:07.96
26 Mohamed Jelloul ESP 29:10.46
27 Tildrek Nurme EST 29:12.42
28 Arttu Vattulainen FIN 29:13.14
29 Napoleon Solomon SWE 29:16.63
30 Ollie Lockley GBR 29:31.14
31 Graham Rush GBR 29:37.72
32 Nicolae Alexandru Soare ROU 29:40.75
33 Lachlan Oates GBR 29:45.19
34 David Nilsson SWE 29:51.31



Women’s ‘A’ Race Prediction (Start Time: 8:30pm)

Pos Name Nation Predicted Time
1 Chemtai Lonah Salpeter Israel 31:27.42
2 Ancuta Bobocel Romania 31:50.99
3 Ana Lozano Spain 31:54.35
4 Emelia Gorecka GB 32:16.11
5 Jip Vastenburg Netherlands 32:21.38
6 Charlotte Arter GB 32:25.28
7 Anne-Mari Hyryläinen Finland 32:25.71
8 Katrina Wootton GB 32:39.56
9 Stevie Stockton GB 32:46.57
10 Claire Duck GB 32:50.39
11 Sabrina Mockenhaupt Germany 32:52.79
12 Emma Mitchell Ireland 32:56.10
13 Louise Small GB 32:56.52
14 Natalie Tanner Germany 32:56.53
15 Kate Avery GB 32:58.48
16 Yuliya Shmatenko Ukraine 33:03.34
17 Katarzyna Rutkowska Poland 33:07.47
18 Jenny Nesbitt GB 33:10.55
19 Maitane Melero Spain 33:15.01
20 María José Pérez Spain 33:19.70
21 Samira Mezeghrane France 33:28.14
22 Tania Carretero Spain 33:28.29
23 Faye Fullerton GB 33:28.82
24 Krisztina Papp Hungary 33:29.76
25 Miriam Dattke Germany 33:30.71
26 Dani Nimmock GB 33:32.01
27 Nuria Lugueros Spain 33:37.08
28 Philippa Bowden GB 33:45.68
29 Sophie Duarte France 33:48.91
30 Ann Marie McGlynn Ireland 33:50.22
31 Eleanor Davis GB 33:51.13
32 Ashley Gibson GB 33:58.15
33 Cátia Santos Portugal 33:58.87
34 Mhairi MacLennan GB 34:13.05



According to @Chip_Time on twitter, this year we will be expecting around 48.7% of runners to achieve a personal best across all nine races at Highgate’s Parliament Hill athletics track. Our data (focusing on just the A races) produces a rate of 48.5% gaining a PB.

For a more detailed analysis of the runners taking part, check out these previews from European Athletics : Men | Women

Check back here on Sunday for an update with retrospective analysis of our predictions.

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